Backed by our CaesarDPT analyses, we did not let the rather gloomy mood of a seasonally weak September get to us. The broad technology markets around the Nasdaq and KOSPI proved correspondingly robust: the Nasdaq-100 gained +3.0% in September, while European equity markets were weaker, with the SMI at −1.9% and the DAX at −2.7%.
At the centre of the current CaesarDPT analysis is an unusual divergence: the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen above 5.25%, and the 2-year yield is approaching the 5% mark again. Both rate indicators are sending a warning signal — yet the VIX and credit spreads have not confirmed the stress so far. Our AI-assisted risk model currently shows a CaesarDPT market risk of 37% for the S&P 500.
In the expert commentary we look ahead to the upcoming reporting season: Big Tech earnings — and whether the poor market sentiment, shaped by the war in Iran, rising US rates and the AI safety debate, could once again catch many investors on the wrong foot. Plus a look at the CPI and PCE data and their possible direction for 2027.
Our High-Conviction ideas also staged a strong rebound in September. The thematic certificate Alpha AI Leaders gained +8.4% over the month, clearly outperforming the Nasdaq-100. Which names carried the performance, where we are close to re-entering and how we are positioning for the fourth quarter
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