October once again lived up to its reputation as a volatile month on the stock market: for the third time this year, the technology and AI sector saw exceptionally sharp price swings. The Nasdaq-100 lost −6.1% in October and the KOSPI as much as −16.3%, while European equity markets largely escaped the correction, with the SMI at +6.9% and the DAX at +2.7%.
The current CaesarDPT analysis rests on four indicators: the yields on 2- and 10-year US Treasuries, the oil price and the S&P 500. The rate indicators are still sending warning signals — but yields have come down noticeably since their peak in early October, taking "some of the pressure off the boiler". Our AI-assisted market risk indicator currently stands at 28%, clearly in low-risk mode.
In the expert commentary we assess the tense situation in the AI sector: the AI supercycle between an investment boom and market fear — with a health check of the hyperscalers after the quarterly results from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. Plus exclusive insights from NVIDIA GTC in Berlin, which our CEO attended as a member of the Swiss delegation.
In the High-Conviction update we introduce two new names, SK Hynix and Intuitive Surgical. The thematic certificate Alpha AI Leaders corrected by −10.5% in October — why we consider the current AI fear clearly overdone, which reallocation we made in the portfolio and how we are positioning for November
The full report is reserved for CaesarDPT clients
The detailed assessment of all four indicators, both expert commentaries and the full performance update on our strategies are available in the CaesarDPT terminal. Not a client yet?